The productivity gain is invisible using your metric.

What I have seen is that, with LLMs, an entire class of process brokenness disappeared in the in-house codebase. Before, there were many trivial tickets that, in the end, required a 5-line bugfix sitting in the queue for months. Now, such tickets are resolved instantly, and the backlog is shrinking.

Because the code is and almost never was the problem. Product design and business involves a lot more than code.

Personally, I did see a lot of entry-level products having a lot higher quality and better UX. At the same time, most companies go for fast iterations and are profit-focused, do product quality is not really a target for many.

The productivity gains will go where they always go when a mature industry undergoes automation. We'll reduce headcount, ramp up the output expectations anyone lucky enough to keep their job, and expand the operating margins for shareholders.

None of this capital has ever been earmarked to build better consumer utilities.