The Exponential Time Hypothesis one used a novel algorithm though. And the approach was very surprising for experts[1].
> “Some parts [of OpenAI’s proof] are, maybe you could say routine, but then yes, there are two or three alien-looking parts, and it’s exactly these parts that I saw that made me think, wow, this is something that the whole community needs to work on together,” Williams told TechCrunch.
[1] https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/27/frontier-ai-labs-say-their...
And therefore there is no possible path, right?
Did you see a path to ChatGPT before it happened? Did you see a path to Stable Diffusion before it happened? Did you see a path to world models before they happened? Did you see a path to Navier-Stokes before it happened? Did you see a path to the HuggingFace incident before it happened?
How much of this would you have predicted vs. how much of this was novel and a surprise to you when it happened?