Polymarket didn't serve the US last I checked, unless they've changed recently.

Ah, makes sense. I've never bothered looking into using either so I wasn't aware of that.

Polymarket does. In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors. It also increases the odds that if you make money you'll actually be able to withdraw it unlike many of these markets. They also operate in actual dollars not make up crypto tokens.

Note that Polymarket's non-US business is crypto blockchain whatever so ... good luck with that. The ability to get your money out could disappear at any time and as far as I know there's no recourse if they just decide to screw you over. Not that CFTC is super effective but it is something.

> In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors

So is Kalshi. The entire question is how the CFTC made up the authority to regulate gambling out of statute that only ever mentions exempted commodities.

They do: polymarket.us

They do nothing to block US people from signing up to polymarket.com, the block is a farce

I think it might have something to do with the fact that Kalshi is aggressively running ads targeting young men to get them into sports gambling, and Polymarket isn't. (I've never seen them, but my less-technical brother claims he sees them all the time on tiktok and they're particularly sleazy).

Also, more to the point, Polymarket actually does have at least three active lawsuits against it.

Yes it’s strange, both have hired Donald Trump Jr. as advisor. You’d think they’d both be safe.

In some cases, Kalshi brought the lawsuit against the state(s). Others, where the state(s) initiated the action, name Kalshi and not Polymarket because only Kalshi is operating (legally) in US. Polymarket doesn't offer as many markets on its US-facing entity as it does on its main international site, and not exactly sure but I believe they have not included many of the markets on their US site that are causing Kalshi issues here.

> The main thing getting Kalshi all the attention from the states is their sports gambling markets.

There are 3 separate reasons WHY states are so strongly opposing Kalshi's sports gambling: 1) Kalshi is doing it in a way that avoids state taxation, licensing and regulation, 2) the online sports gambling companies spending billions on TV commercials don't want untaxed, unregulated competition, 3) The major sports leagues are concerned it will undermine the integrity of the 'product'.

Of course, there's no material difference in actual harm to the public between Kalshi sports betting and Online Sportsbook Apps, they both enable gambling addicts, cheating, etc. The hardball reaction is about ensuring Kalshi sends tax, licensing and lobbying money to each state government. The sportsbooks have spent billions ramming gambling legalization through and don't want Kalshi getting a 'free ride' on the bus they paid for.

Even the sports league's opposition isn't as 'pure' as it appears. While they don't want players, coaches or referees to undermine game outcomes, but at the same time they sell exclusive access to real-time on-field data feeds to sportsbooks for hundreds of millions of dollars. The TV feeds we watch at home are ~8 to 15 seconds delayed. Getting the real-time outcome data from every pass, kick and run in 800ms vs ~8s on TV is worth hundreds of millions to online sports apps. When people at home make real-time prop bets on the next play, many times the company already knows the outcome. Something to remember next you see a spinner in a betting app saying "odds updating" and then "bet expired". It be might because your bet was going to win, while if you'd taken the other side, it would have accepted the bet and taken your money. Yeah, that's against the law in a casino but not in an online sports app.

Right, kalshi (and the cftc) wants the cftc to be its regulator bc of the current corrupt administration. The states are saying no we have the power to regulate gaming and prediction markets qualify as such.