Chinese labs are gated by lack of compute, at least until they can build their own EUV machines.

At some point, they'll stop releasing models for free and will need a license.

> At some point, they'll stop releasing models for free and will need a license.

Is this a guess, or do you have any information to back that inference (no pun intended)?

It's my long standing view.

There are already rumblings of CCP wanting to control export of top tier frontier models.

> Of course, it still remains to be seen if they will keep publishing the weights at that point.

I mean if they don't then the US companies could just release their weights and chop the Chinese off at the knee's at that point (reversing what is currently happening).

Opening the weights isn't just a technical thing, it's a geopolitical decision which likely in part comes from the top of the CCCP (by either request or just implicitly allowing it).

Open weights is not a CCP thing. It's a business decision because Chinese labs do not have a good distribution strategy in the west/outside of China.

This is nonsense, at a policy level the Chinese government have actually been moving towards restricting larger models. I'd eat my hat if Europeans in particular aren't paying licenses for weights in a few years if it means getting to host the models on home soil, there is draft legislation (CADA) making its way through at the moment that would even require this in many circumstances.