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Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by toomuchtodo on Saturday October 31, 2026 @08:40PM (#50321684)
Models being capable is orthogonal to trillions of capital being incinerated.

Nasdaq 100 is down over $2.7T over the last month, so far. Still further to go. There are simply not enough earnings materializing to support the capital that has been invested. Google lost $500B in value over the last week because AI overviews, that don’t generate revenue, were cannibalizing search.

OpenAI has cut its funding target by $10B due to lack of enthusiasm by investors. Certainly, if you think AI is going to capture trillions of dollars of value, I encourage you to try to catch the falling knife. Radiologists won’t be replaced, dentists won’t be replaced, AI will get baked into their EHR or line of business app as a commodity. There will be efficiency gains, but not a revolution.

Al Enthusiasm Is Collapsing and Tech Earnings Just Made It Worse - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-31/ai-enthus... - October 31st, 2026

Tech Selloff Burns Al Dip-Buyers as Sector Slides for Third Week - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/ai-dip-bu... - October 30th, 2026

Gartner Survey Finds Only 13% of CIOs Say Their Enterprise Has Realized Significant or Transformational Value from AI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50207881 - October 2026

Credit swaps and the bond market are more accurately pricing the future imho. Are capital managers smarter than HN? We’re going to find out. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50303881

Ed is behind on model capabilities, but he’s correct it’s an irrational bubble, based on the financials and fundamentals, that will eventually end. Your similar comment from three months ago indicates you’re allowing faith and a belief system to conflict with reality: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49031793

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by cunnymcface on Saturday October 31, 2026 @09:09PM (#50321835)
What do we call that period where there were massive industrial efficiency and productivity gains?

It was the industrial something, oh wait! Industrial Revolution!

And a bad day on the stock market isn’t money disappearing from the economy, it’s money moving, it’s not destroyed, it moves. It can move back on Monday, and has repeatedly.

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by toomuchtodo on Saturday October 31, 2026 @09:09PM (#50321838)
No significant productivity gains have been proven, and nowhere near enough revenue. Rely on faith if you will, markets demand proof and evidence. Will it materialize? Maybe, maybe not.

Like full self driving, “three months maybe, six months definitely.” Which was, what, a decade ago?

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by cunnymcface on Saturday October 31, 2026 @09:13PM (#50321855)
I think you’re lying to yourself.

You think Google just hasn’t checked the math on their spend for the fastest growing product they ever shipped?

Self driving trucks are on the road delivering things. Every day.

https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/gemini-app/on...

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by toomuchtodo on Saturday October 31, 2026 @09:14PM (#50321861)
I didn’t lose $500B in value this week. Cloud revenue is up, LLMs are not.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280564

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50280197

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by cunnymcface on Saturday October 31, 2026 @11:20PM (#50322429)
You know that you can buy llm access from Google’s cloud offerings right?
Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by toomuchtodo on Sunday November 01, 2026 @02:26PM (#50328808)
Does that mean LLMs are delivering efficiency gains or revenue? Or does it mean compute is being bought? You know you can spend money on cloud with nothing to show for it, right?
Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by cunnymcface on Sunday November 01, 2026 @03:50PM (#50329731)
Maybe you should go look at the epic money fountain that grew 103% YoY with increasingly better margins?

https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/a...

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by toomuchtodo on Thursday November 05, 2026 @11:25PM (#50388185)
Would you like to revisit this sub thread after the recent $5T equity wipeout?
Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by cunnymcface on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @07:11PM (#50460962)
You seem to think the price reflects reality of a company, rather than the warped perceptions of a bunch of outsiders who don’t understand what they’re buying.

Your comment would fit with 2008, 2020, 2022, spring 2025.. but on the whole, the business keeps growing and blasting out endless streams of ever more cash.

But sure, this means Google is doomed, better dump it fast.

Re:Inverse Zitron: An Investment Strategy by quadhome on Sunday November 01, 2026 @12:54AM (#50322832)
it’s money moving, it’s not destroyed

Couldn’t a company incinerate funds and their stock bottom out because no one will buy?