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A comment on Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end for TPUs. Parent comment

Re:Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end f... by omgwtfbyobbq on Tuesday October 20, 2026 @05:32PM (#50172986)
It's possible. If goog's AI overview is accurate, it seems somewhat similar to speculative euphoria seen in the past (eg companies involved in electricity prior to the great depression). It's larger (currently 35% for AI versus 25% for electric/related cos), I'm guessing because of more credit. At the same time, the housing component of the market prior to the GFC was about 23%, and it wasn't as economically damaging as the GD, so hopefully the AI bubble unwinding won't be as bad.
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Re:Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end f... by esseph on Tuesday October 20, 2026 @05:50PM (#50173186)
> so hopefully the AI bubble unwinding won't be as bad

It's currently larger than the 1880s railroad boom.

"Overbuilding and speculative debt ultimately culminated in the Panic of 1893, plunging the nation into a severe economic depression."

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Re:Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end f... by omgwtfbyobbq on Tuesday October 20, 2026 @06:56PM (#50173835)
Not according to Goog's. The railroad bubble of the 1880s was supposedly 60+% of the market. It may not be accurate though.

"During the 1880s, private railroad enterprises represented over 60% of the total capitalization of the entire U.S. stock market, peaking at 63% in 1881 and 1885."

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Re:Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end f... by esseph on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @11:55AM (#50183101)
AI spending is significant more in inflation adjusted dollars. (Roughly 550 Bn in modern dollars). We're projecting trillions in AI spend.

But as a % of total GDP, you are correct.

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Re:Google open-sources TorchTPU, a native PyTorch back end f... by omgwtfbyobbq on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @05:26PM (#50187885)
I asked Goog's for enterprise value of the sector as a percentage of total market in all 4 situations, so it's not exact because enterprise value isn't available back to the 1800s, but it should be ballpark assuming the overall picture is accurate.

In terms of infra spending as a percent of GDP, 1880s railroads were at 5-6% at peak while AI is estimated to reach 3+% in a year or two.

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