Re:How Quickly Can the DoD Rebuild and Recast the Munitions ...
by bluGill on Monday October 19, 2026 @08:12PM
(#50159708)
Patriots are used when that's the only thing you have available. However, the world has already figured this out and we are ramping up production of much cheaper interceptors for the cheap drones very quickly. Patriots are not going to be using great quantity against small drones in the foreseeable future because everyone knows small drones are going to be a problem and so they're wrapping up their cheap drone defenses. Ukraine will sell you a drone interceptor and it's probably going to cost you less than the thing gets intercepting so long course as you try to intercept something you can get. Sending a cheap interceptor against a ballistic missile is obviously going to fail and then you need a patriot. But the ballistic missile is also vastly much more expensive I don't know numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Patriot production is wrapping up and going to be cheaper than the ballistic missiles it's hitting in the near future.
Re:How Quickly Can the DoD Rebuild and Recast the Munitions ...
by dghlsakjg on Tuesday October 20, 2026 @09:31AM
(#50166127)
The interceptor cost is only half the point.
If you can get any drones through at all, it still comes out assymetrical. If you shoot 9/10 of my drones down with magically free munitions, but I blow up a refinery or take out a fighter sitting on the ground I still win. Right now there just isn't a system that can guarantee 100% intercept rates over the long run.
Ukraine, Russia and Iran have all proved that there is no foolproof interceptor. Right now, the drone gets through.
That said: how many APKWS missiles does it take to eliminate a full wave of Shaheds? If the answer is not 1:1 shot to kill ratio (it isn't), the match still works out in favor of the drones. If a single drone gets through it works out massively. If my defense platform is an F-15 or F-35 for cheap missiles, I also have to eat the cost and readiness loss of operating that jet ($30k per hour). We see this exact math in incidents like the Prince Sulatan Air Base attack which was defended by patriots, and where several planes were damaged or destroyed on the ground.
Its also worth pointing out that Patriots are reportedly getting used to defend against Shaheds in the gulf and Ukraine, especially the newer generations that are faster and higher flying.