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A comment on Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading. Parent comment

Re:Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket ... by phillc73 on Thursday October 08, 2026 @03:06AM (#50002655)
> ...but in the longterm the house/bookmaker always wins.

Not always. Yes, the house always wins in casino games like blackjack or slot machines. In sports betting, if you're good enough to overcome the market overround (the house margin), then you can consistently win and professionals have been doing this for decades. Read about Bill Benter in Hong Kong.[1]

> Kalshi and Polymarket now offer others the opportunity to become the house and take the other side of the bet against these people

This is not a particularly new thing. Betfair[2] has been offering this in the UK for at least 20 years and later in Australia. It's mostly sports betting, and of course Kalshi and Polymarket are not merely sports betting, but the ability to offer lay bets to the public is not new.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Benter

[2] https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket ... by helsinkiandrew on Thursday October 08, 2026 @04:11AM (#50003134)
> In sports betting, if you're good enough to overcome the market overround (the house margin)

Yes, some betters beat the house, but overall more people are loosing and the casinos/bookmakers 'win'.

[ Parent | on HN ]