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Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @12:44AM (#49783146)
>Assange didn't commit a crime

Assange literally pleaded guilty to violating the Espionage Act.

And if we're going to pretend that plea deals are coercion than we better rethink how the whole criminal justice system works.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Monday September 21, 2026 @01:05AM (#49783255)
Yes, that he was forced to do so by the Brits in order to be release is what I referred to, so of course it is coercion.

He is of not American and has no duty to be loyal to the US or to refrain from committing espionage against it.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @01:56AM (#49783501)
Your objection isn't to just Assange's case. It's with over 90% of criminal cases in the US. I was talking about a particular situation, so I'm not going to have the debate you seemingly want to have.
Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Monday September 21, 2026 @02:46AM (#49783826)
My objection is absolutely with Assange's case. I don't particularly approve of the idea of these sorts of plea deals, but they are not the core problem.

The core problem is that Britain pressured Assange to enter into a US plea deal over something which it was entirely legal for him to do, seeing as he was in Iceland when the acts were committed.

Seeing as part of the information obtained related to black sites at which there is reason to believe that people were killed (we know that that a person released from the Polish black site were almost killed, so we can be fairly sure that a bunch of people died there), and Iceland has a law making it legally mandatory to help people who are in danger; and I think there's good reason to believe that he had reason to believe that the information would reveal such things, so that it wasn't just him doing good, but him doing his legal duty, once he had reason to believe that people were in danger.

So my concern has very little to do with plea agreements. They have to do with Britain.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @12:47PM (#49789740)
>we know that that a person released from the Polish black site were almost killed, so we can be fairly sure that a bunch of people died there

This is the kind of statement that just completely undermines any possible conversation we could have about the law. Can you seriously not take a step back and realize the jump in logic you made here from one person was almost killed and that being evidence of "a bunch of people" being killed? Because this discussion is not worth having with someone who genuinely believes this jump in logic is reasonable.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Monday September 21, 2026 @02:46PM (#49791570)
No, it does not.

There's a guy from Lebanon who ended up moving to Germany called Khaled El-Masri who got seized in Macedonia by the US and who got sent around a bunch of US black sites.

Eventually people figured out he wasn't Khalid Al-Masri and started treating him better, but he still almost died. Consequently, the people who weren't treated better almost certainly did.

This can't really be disputed. The US certainly killed people at these black sites. The obvious danger El-Masri was in makes that clear.

There is a screw-up in my previous comment since I say Poland rather than Macedonia or Afghanistan, but there's reason to think that the Polish black site is iffier than the others because of how the investigation of the location was performed.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @05:38PM (#49793807)
Once again, a person who wasn't killed is your evidence that "a bunch of people" were killed. You genuinely don't recognize how silly that is? John Hinckley almost killed Reagan, "so we can be fairly sure" he killed a "bunch" of other presidents.
Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Monday September 21, 2026 @07:53PM (#49795016)
So imagine a censored random variable.

Let's say that D is a random variable representing whether a certain person in one of these black sites is dead due to mistreatment. It's not so simple that D=0 if the guy lives, D=1 otherwise, D is a continuous variable, a damage level.

You can't sample from D ~ P(D) because people aren't releasing such information; and we know this, because when El-Masri sued the US he was prevented from doing so by means of the State Secrets doctrine and it was argued that whether he had been tortured and by whom was a state secret. Consequently what we actually have samples of is P(D|released) and I think P(D|released)=P(D|innocent,recognized as innocent,slightly lucky). So if we have D ~ P(D|released) where it turns out that we have observed a realization of that with D = 0.17, do you think there are only a few outcomes where D=0, when taking into account that E[D|innocent,recognized as innocent] should be much larger than E[D], and when taking into account that P(released) is really small, something like 10^-4 or 10^-3?

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @08:46PM (#49795438)
>So imagine a censored random variable... D is a continuous variable, a damage level.

This is not a real thing, it's just something you made up. You can see this obviously if you transfer this to another domain. For example, if I get a paper cut at work do you think that means I'm partially dead? Do you think that singular example of a paper cut means "we can be fairly sure" that "a bunch" of my coworkers have died from paper cuts?

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Monday September 21, 2026 @09:10PM (#49795619)
Censored variables are a very real thing and this model is perfectly legtimate. This is how you do maths with conditional probabilities.

It's ad hoc, but so is all maths, and all reasoning.

A man with a paper cut is at D=0.9999 or more. You probably have more noise from variations in sleep or eating or colds. But people don't end up at D=0.17 just randomly. El-Masri was in danger of dying. The fellow was actually tortured.

There's also no censorship in the example of the paper cut. It also isn't possible to infer much from a something like that E[D|some positive condition]=0.9999, so even if there were censorship your example with a small scratch doesn't allow the sort of argument I gave in my previous comment. My previous comment specifically relies that you have a censored sample D~P(D|something that you'd expect would make D large) and then finding that this D is small.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by impossiblefork on Tuesday September 22, 2026 @06:19AM (#49798944)
It turns out though, that this doesn't matter. There's actually a list of people who are known to have been tortured to death in these places on Wikipedia.

Still, I think there's a point to this statistical reasoning: Assange could have made it at the time, and been correct, and thus we have a strong argument for his duty to act under Icelandic law.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by kelnos on Monday September 21, 2026 @05:29AM (#49785032)
> And if we're going to pretend that plea deals are coercion

Many absolutely are coercion, not sure why you'd think otherwise.

Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by slg on Monday September 21, 2026 @12:49PM (#49789781)
I guess "we better rethink how the whole criminal justice system works." The guy living in exile seems like a silly place to start that conversation rather than the millions of Americans currently in prison for agreeing to plea deals.
Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by ryoshoe on Monday September 21, 2026 @06:51PM (#49794499)
We should because the time between being acused and when a case is actually tried is undeniably a factor in why plea deals are taken. When the alternative to taking a plea deal is potentially spending months in jail until one's case goes to trail is accepting a plea deal which comes with a definite and possibly shorter sentence than the waiting period for a trial itself it isn't surprising that people would simply accept the plea deal
Re:What Happened to the Snowden Archive by ninalanyon on Monday September 21, 2026 @05:31AM (#49785052)
> pretend that plea deals are coercion

That's exactly what they are.