Re:Central bankers rethink their devotion to slaying inflation
by AnthonyMouse on Sunday December 23, 2012 @04:09PM
(#4960680)
>Deflation is actually a good thing, because in a deflation prices drop and money becomes more valuable, so deflation encourages people to save money.
And saving is always good. (Except when it isn't.)
Do you know what happens to nominal investment returns during a period of deflation? They become negative. The money will be worth more tomorrow than it is today if you "save" it -- not necessarily invest it, just save it. So why go out and invest it in something where you could risk losing your money if you can just stick it in your mattress and have it be worth more tomorrow?
In consequence the people with disposable income don't spend or invest, they "save" by purchasing and storing money, investing in currency itself because it has a better ROI than other alternatives. It's an economic catastrophe. It has been credited with causing the Great Depression.
There are ways to promote investment (as opposed to "saving") over spending if that's what you want to do. Adopt consumption-based taxes rather than income-based taxes so that wealth remains untaxed until spent, incentivizing investment over spending without promoting currency hoarding.
>They want to create as much money as they want, and assuming they always intend to do good things with the money, then they want to be able to do that so they can "fix" things.
Central banks don't really "decide" what to do with the money. The Fed just buys treasury securities with it, which lowers interest rates because it reduces the market supply of those securities by taking them off the open market. This generally does stimulate the economy because it puts the newly created money in the hands of whoever would otherwise have held those treasury securities, who as an investor will now have to invest in something else (because fewer treasury securities are now on the market). In other words, it creates demand for investment securities of all types by reducing the supply of the safest forms, pushing investors toward higher risk securities (like stocks) that may better provide funding for business opportunities that create economic growth.
It also has the effect of lowering interest rates on treasury securities, which makes it cheaper for governments to borrow money (and plausibly thereby increases their propensity for deficit spending). But it also lowers the interest rates they pay on outstanding debt, which leaves more tax dollars to go toward (theoretically) useful programs rather than going to paying higher interest rates on the debt. But creating the money is not the problem in itself (provided the level of inflation remains within reason), the problem is when governments take it as an opportunity to deficit spend on wasteful programs.
And saving is always good. (Except when it isn't.)
Do you know what happens to nominal investment returns during a period of deflation? They become negative. The money will be worth more tomorrow than it is today if you "save" it -- not necessarily invest it, just save it. So why go out and invest it in something where you could risk losing your money if you can just stick it in your mattress and have it be worth more tomorrow?
In consequence the people with disposable income don't spend or invest, they "save" by purchasing and storing money, investing in currency itself because it has a better ROI than other alternatives. It's an economic catastrophe. It has been credited with causing the Great Depression.
There are ways to promote investment (as opposed to "saving") over spending if that's what you want to do. Adopt consumption-based taxes rather than income-based taxes so that wealth remains untaxed until spent, incentivizing investment over spending without promoting currency hoarding.
>They want to create as much money as they want, and assuming they always intend to do good things with the money, then they want to be able to do that so they can "fix" things.
Central banks don't really "decide" what to do with the money. The Fed just buys treasury securities with it, which lowers interest rates because it reduces the market supply of those securities by taking them off the open market. This generally does stimulate the economy because it puts the newly created money in the hands of whoever would otherwise have held those treasury securities, who as an investor will now have to invest in something else (because fewer treasury securities are now on the market). In other words, it creates demand for investment securities of all types by reducing the supply of the safest forms, pushing investors toward higher risk securities (like stocks) that may better provide funding for business opportunities that create economic growth.
It also has the effect of lowering interest rates on treasury securities, which makes it cheaper for governments to borrow money (and plausibly thereby increases their propensity for deficit spending). But it also lowers the interest rates they pay on outstanding debt, which leaves more tax dollars to go toward (theoretically) useful programs rather than going to paying higher interest rates on the debt. But creating the money is not the problem in itself (provided the level of inflation remains within reason), the problem is when governments take it as an opportunity to deficit spend on wasteful programs.