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A comment on More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding. Parent comment

Re:More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic stat... by close04 on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @09:52AM (#49449192)
I'm not very familiar with how they work. Don't prediction markets give the individual gambler a boolean choice and this results in a picture of the split over the population? There's no granular option for the individual to bet 40% vs. 60% for something happening, the vote with 100% confidence that Spain wins the World Cup, they don't give 85% chance of winning.
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Re:More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic stat... by qznc on Wednesday August 26, 2026 @04:38PM (#49455545)
The way to express a 85% confidence is to size your investment accordingly. For example, if the market is at 75%, then you buy yes-shares until the price is at 85%. If the market is at 90%, then buy no-shares instead until the price is down to 85%.
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