There is one more possibility. Mainboards all get shared memory and memory costs go down below $1/GiB. That makes GPUs cheap, as they do not come with memory. Then local models become the norm for many, because you can buy a 10 TiB machine for 10k, and upgrade the GPU when needed. I guess that models will not grow endlessly, ones the growth in size flattens, the demand for more and more memory flattens. So, IMHO, long term local models will win. However, short to medium term it may not be. My 2 cent.