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Re:Show HN: PolyBridge – a causal model for forecasting glob... by zippolyon on Thursday July 30, 2026 @11:34AM (#49111454)
You mentioned that the system supports interventions and counterfactuals. I am curious: does it simply recalculate a predicted probability based on the intervention, or does it separately log the target, current context, intervention, actual outcome, and the residual between the outcome and the target? If these are logged, is the residual subsequently recalculated using the actual outcome once the event has occurred?

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