You need AI capabilities to the point where the US and Chinese leaders get scared enough that they do a deal.
There are detailed specific scenarios in Plan A https://ai-2040.com/
There are detailed specific scenarios in Plan A https://ai-2040.com/
RSI is too important and too tangible at this point for everyone to slow down. It's the equivalent of telling the world to stop developing nuclear weapons after Hiroshima. Just not going to happen, and in the meantime dramatically increases the risk that the power of AGI lands in the hands of the few (read: the political class) rather than empowers the people.