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A comment on The new rules of context engineering for Claude 5 generation models. Parent comment

Re:The new rules of context engineering for Claude 5 generat... by KludgeShySir on Saturday July 25, 2026 @11:19PM (#49054359)
Exactly, like weather forecasting. If you're told there's a 30% chance of rain, it doesn't mean that 3 out of 10 times you will experience rain.

Either it will rain or it won't, so the probability is either 0% or 100%. And so a forecast of "30% chance of rain" is referring to the likelihood that your probability will be 100%, as opposed to 0%.

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Re:The new rules of context engineering for Claude 5 generat... by margalabargala on Sunday July 26, 2026 @12:55AM (#49054861)
> Either it will rain or it won't, so the probability is either 0% or 100%. And so a forecast of "30% chance of rain" is referring to the likelihood that your probability will be 100%, as opposed to 0%.

This is a huge misunderstanding of what probability means.

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Re:The new rules of context engineering for Claude 5 generat... by someguyiguess on Sunday July 26, 2026 @05:41AM (#49056344)
75% chance you’re wrong.
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