Options market makers have no idea where the S&P will be in one year, options are priced on the current implied volatility. The bid and ask will be slightly lower and higher than the true current option price so the MM can make their nut on the spread and then hedge so they’re delta neutral.

If you buy a put you are making a bet that realized volatility will exceed implied volatility. This may or may not happen and there’s no way to predict the future.