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A comment on We need tech news sources which exclude AI. Parent comment
- scaling laws exist
- downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index)
- gpt4 to gpt5 leap in capabilities every 16-18 months
- actual adoption and retention and engagement numbers are out of this world
- RL with verifiable rewards will get you to super human performance even with poor sample efficiency
- zero evidence of a plateau
I don’t know the future I am just skeptically looking at the data.
What data are you looking at?
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- scaling laws exist
- downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index)
- gpt4 to gpt5 leap in capabilities every 16-18 months
- actual adoption and retention and engagement numbers are out of this world
- RL with verifiable rewards will get you to super human performance even with poor sample efficiency
- zero evidence of a plateau
I don’t know the future I am just skeptically looking at the data.
What data are you looking at?