I was similarly an AI skeptic 3 years ago. When GPT-4 was the state of the art, I thought we're going to plateau soon because of context size limits (remember back when you had to pay insane money just to get 32K)?

Last year was the first time I saw an AI agent actually debug and fix a non-trivial bug in a satisfactory way. Even then, trying to use it on larger tasks made it clear that it wasn't something I could just hand over the issue tracker to.

Now? I've been using Codex for the past several months to work on a nontrivial project. Which was prototyped in C++ (for library reasons mostly), then had the initial version written in Haskell, and more recently I got it ported to Rust to keep memory use in check on mobile.

These things are not trouble-free, but the sheer amount of progress made in just the last year alone is astounding. Skepticism is well and good, but healthy skepticism ought to yield to tangible evidence.