I could believe that a few people who are in the "below average use" bucket might take these reports as a confirmation that they can relax their energy conservation efforts, but I can't believe that any meaningful number of people would actively increase their usage to "catch up" to their neighbors.
Must resist... :-/
Edit: damn it... Luckily it was the second hit http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_dismal_science/20...
Why would some energy-conscious Republicans all of a sudden become power hogs?"
The article says that a particular demographic of republicans increased their usage by 1 percent. Then describes them as power-hogs for their 1 percent increase. Thats a bit difficult to take seriously. All the examples of change seem to have been cherry-picked to try and make an interesting article, rather than forming an interesting picture as a whole.
I'm also having trouble parsing the tables in the original paper, but it appears that there are groups with a worse treatment effect (e.g. college educated with above-average use) that the authors did not highlight. Perhaps this is a misreading on my part?
I think it would have been better if they had made that experiment in a more neutral setting (psychology students perhaps), the aspect of the political parties is distracting. The main point is that nudges can go wrong.
Sorry I am too lazy to Google for the paper. The point is: careful with such experiments, the outcome might not always be what is desired.