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A comment on Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence. Parent comment

Re:Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over l... by Barrin92 on Tuesday May 26, 2026 @01:42PM (#48283066)
the entire point of the argument is that they're the same people. Military bets appear to have significantly higher rates of insider trading than baseline[1], which implies two things, both catastrophic. One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) but the even worse scenario is causality in the other direction, that a bet leads someone to take a military decision.

[1]https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-mil...

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Re:Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over l... by jMyles on Tuesday May 26, 2026 @10:39PM (#48288850)
> One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone)

It's not at all obvious that leaks of classified information are per se detrimental to _actual_ national security.

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