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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by locallost on Thursday May 21, 2026 @02:53PM (#48227380)
This still doesn't mean they are good at it. For them it's like flipping a coin with two identical sides. It's just cheating.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by tsimionescu on Friday May 22, 2026 @04:20AM (#48233319)
My point was that the alternative to "liquidity providers make the most money" is not "prophets exist", the truth could have been "insiders make the most money".

Note that there is nothing in the rules of Polymarket or the other prediction markets that says it's not perfectly OK for insiders to bet, so I don't think it makes sense to call this cheating. Of course, this is a major absurdity of these "markets", but insiders are part of the game you chose to play by participating.

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by locallost on Saturday May 23, 2026 @05:32PM (#48251754)
There could be many alternatives, but not valid. Polymarket and Kalshi have banned insider betting.