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A comment on Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket. Parent comment

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by locallost on Thursday May 21, 2026 @02:51PM (#48227358)
I don't know. Buffett had a good example of, if you organized a national coin flipping contest in the US, you would have people that won 25+ coin tosses in a row. Are these people good at calling coin tosses or is it just chance? You cannot reliably and long term predict if Bitcoin will go up or down within 5 minutes, or something similar. You can cheat maybe somehow, but that's not within the rules of the game.
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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by vcf on Thursday May 21, 2026 @03:20PM (#48227689)
That's true, but you can invest in your infrastructure and data sources to be faster than most traders, which allows you to provide liquidity with a smaller spread (and snipe the slower traders that try to provide liquidity)
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