Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by cortesoft on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:24AM (#48224343)

There is alternative to being “able to predict the future”, which is “I already know the future” or “I can change the future”

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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by mathgradthrow on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:16PM (#48225197)

Someone flips a coin and looks at it, what orders are you willing to put in?

The potential for insiders should be represented by a complete loss of liquidity.

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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by tsimionescu on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:45PM (#48225649)

And yet, many people bet on things like the duration or contents of press conferences, of pre-taped shows, etc.

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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by mathgradthrow on Thursday May 21, 2026 @05:35PM (#48229147)

well, I wrote should as a hedge.

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