It could be a giant hack of course, it could be Elon saying he knows how to do it when he doesn't and getting all these great ideas to pour out. Or he could die and it would be his 'last company' legacy like Fermat's last theorem, sort of "Wow, really elegant way to do that, won't quite fit in the margin here though."
Anyway, what ever it turns out to be I'm sure it will be cool.
[1] My Dad is an engraver with an FFL and gets all sorts of interesting things in the mail. Usually to engrave, but the promotional literature is cool too.
Google "Evacuated Tube Transport" (ETT) or "Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies" (ET3) (trade marks of ET3 Global Alliance, and et3.com Inc.) on google and youtube -- watch the videos to learn of more advantages. Read the first US patent (5,595,543) to learn exactly how all of what Musk claims (and much more) can be accomplished. NOTE: ET3 (tm) is the product of over 200 experts, companies, and institutions in 18 countries. We hope musk joins our efforts to implement ET3. ET3 is optimized to accommodate BOTH cargo and passengers in car sized vehicles. Initial (local) routes will be at 300-400mph, and ET3 will accomplish over 50 times more transportation (ton-miles and passenger-miles) per KWh than the most efficient electric car or train. ET3 cost is less than a tenth as much as HSR (high speed rail), mostly due to much less vehicle mass It takes 1/30th as much concrete and steel to support 1200lb car sized capsules (400lb vehicles that haul the same 800lb payload as a typical automobile) than to support 100 ton locomotives on elevated structure. ET3 has over 10 times more capacity than HSR at 350mph design speed, and 0ver 100 times more at 4000mph. Refs: search “ doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-087X.2011.01.007 “ for a peer reviewed paper published in Journal of Modern Transportation; US patent 5,595,543 (many additional patents in the ET3 portfolio)
Launch loops are interesting. They seem to be even more difficult than tether-based space elevators, which have themselves been unable to work due to material strength:weight constraints on the tether. I'd expect the belt supporting a launch loop to have similar constraints, and the dynamic bending of the belt would raise fatigue concerns.
Agree with your speed estimations and that supersonic or near- speeds have very high drag costs and complicated analysis.
The reason inertial schemes like the space fountain and the launch loop were created is to overcome those material limitations. Aside from the scale, the engineering and material science of a launch loop is relatively straight forward.
The seminal paper, which discusses rotor fatigue and much more: http://launchloop.com/LaunchLoop%3Faction=AttachFile%26do=ge...
And, of course, the skin friction on a 2.5 meter tunnel would be immense. Using a duct friction loss calculator I get 285 megawatts of loss over the entire tube. You need two tubes. At 120,000 passengers/day (HSR estimate), it would take 114 kWh per trip. That's worst than the Model S, hardly an system in which "the fundamental energy cost is so much lower" than a car.
No, the "theoretically fastest way" to go from Point A to Point B is a great-circle vacuum train connecting them. A launch loop does essentially that, but exploits the vacuum above our heads instead. It just fits better.
Any hyperloop theory needs to deal with supersonic speeds – LA-SF as the crow flies in 30 minutes is just under the wire for subsonic speeds. Elon said "under 30 minutes." There are mountains in the way.