Re:One Startup Is Gambling. Ten Is Mathematics
by sigmoid10 on Wednesday May 13, 2026 @03:32AM
(#48118899)
>A VC knows that out of 20 investments: 10 will go to zero. 5 will return the money. 4 will make decent returns. 1 will be a unicorn.
From a quick glance at real data, it looks more like 1 in 77 venture backed startups will be a unicorn. Out of 20 startups, 12 will be gone within 7 years, and the majority of the remaining ones will still lose money. Funnily enough, even most unicorns aren't profitable right now. So the real game being played here is to time the exit on that one overvalued company before the market turns. It's not about power laws, it's about preying on irrational markets.
From a quick glance at real data, it looks more like 1 in 77 venture backed startups will be a unicorn. Out of 20 startups, 12 will be gone within 7 years, and the majority of the remaining ones will still lose money. Funnily enough, even most unicorns aren't profitable right now. So the real game being played here is to time the exit on that one overvalued company before the market turns. It's not about power laws, it's about preying on irrational markets.