I really don't agree with this and there is no arguing that it is simply conjecture at this point.

I don't think Microsoft thinks that Metro apps or the metro environment do or ever will offer the same level of extremely high productivity that desktop apps and the desktop environment provide.

I think we will have a much better idea of Microsoft's POV on Metro if/when they release Office apps on it. Quite simply put, if Metro Office does not have 1:1 feature parity with the desktop apps then that backs my point. If I were to bet, I would say that Metro Office will be more aligned with the web apps. I would be quite surprised if they aligned more to the full desktop clients.

Why? Because the desktop is an environment suited for mouse and keyboard where you can have super high levels of productivity. Metro will not replace that as it excels in other use cases. Can you be productive with Metro? I'd argue you can. Just as productive as in the desktop? With some apps, perhaps. With others, absolutely not.

Then how do you explain the fact that the Windows App Store is metro-only? That seems to imply that either Microsoft wants to push metro-style apps in the long run, or they don't care about the app store on the desktop - I'd put my money on the former.

Well actually you can get desktop apps off of the app store. Sort of. It just redirects you to the website where you can download the software. But it is a listing nevertheless.

Yeah, but I'd argue that the major benefit of app stores are:

- Discoverability

- Easy payment processing/distribution

- Automatic updates

- Being able to easily re-download it later

- Consistent purchase, install, update experience

- Some confidence on the part of the end user that what they are downloading works on their system and isn't going to harm their computer

The simple listings for non-metro apps really only benefit from the first item, and they don't really change my argument.

Yeah I agree. Though I don't think that them pushing the app store as being metro first is equal to them shunning the desktop. Perhaps that is simply something we'll agree to disagree on?

It's very important for them to have the metro environment flourish and for that they're going to need lots of metro apps and blah blah blah. Metro IS important. It just isn't replacing the desktop any time soon.

To be clear - I don't think Microsoft is shunning or trying to destroy (at least in the short term) the non-metro desktop. I just think they are going to be pushing metro (or whatever it is called now) pretty hard, and if you don't like metro-style apps, they are going to be harder and harder to avoid as time goes by.

I just think that app stores are going to be more and more important to the ecosystems they exist in. For the reasons I mentioned above, I think more and more software is going to be procured via app stores (although, in big businesses it will probably be fairly small), and that is going to influence what developers build.

I probably wouldn't have built and sold a Mac app if there weren't an app store, and as I look at porting it to Windows, trying to replicate the infrastructure that I get for free with an app store isn't very appealing for the amount of money I'd likely make, so my choices are: make a metro-style app so I can use the Windows app store or not make the app at all.

> Perhaps that is simply something we'll agree to disagree on?

Fair enough :)

Even if your prediction proves correct, it won't be the current version of the new environment that's meant to replace the desktop, but some future version, whose suitability you can't really evaluate not being in the future.