I've been reading that we've hit a wall since chatgpt 3.5 [1]. Then 6 months later when the models are significantly better the goalposts are moved and we've hit the wall again. It's a very strange thing to watch so many people be so confidently incorrect so many times in a row. Not even saying you're wrong, just that historically this argument has been a losing bet.

[1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2023/04/26/openai-ce...