Was it 2015 when HN was full of prediction we won't be driving in five years? From what I see the serious accidents with human drivers are caused by deliberately doing the dangerous thing (in my corner of the world - mostly overtaking at the wrong place or time, or both). Besides that humans drive very safely. Outside of the tightly controlled environment I don't see self-driving getting any better till systems have a proper world-model. So, maybe never.