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A comment on Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets. Parent comment

Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by cortesoft on Monday April 13, 2026 @06:41PM (#47758875)
It doesn't matter if a vast majority of people are not rational economic actors. It only takes 1 rational actor with enough capital to take the other side of all the bad bets, and the market will be priced correctly even if the other 99 people are irrational.
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Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by Majromax on Monday April 13, 2026 @08:26PM (#47759719)
'Enough' [capital] is doing a lot of work in that sentence. In the limit of a one-sided irrational market, the 'rational actor' would need to take the other side of every open transaction.
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Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by cortesoft on Monday April 13, 2026 @09:30PM (#47760165)
Yeah, but in the limit of a one-sided irrational market, the rational actor is going to be given as much capital as he can take.
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Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by eru on Monday April 13, 2026 @11:03PM (#47760742)
In the long run. In the short run, our rational actor will be constrained by the Kelly criterion, well and whatever outside funding she can raise.
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