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Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by sterlingcrispin on Monday April 13, 2026 @01:35PM (#47755359)
In your scenario you're assuming the dice rolls are all independent. If polymarket bets were all pure dice rolls the 60% odds you quoted would be true.

But they aren't independent there are a lot of correlations. Global geopolitics for example.

The way the math works out, 73% of markets resolve to No, If you buy No at 0.73 each time you would break even.

Not financial advice of course

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