The 12 D chess explanation, people still believe this?

This whole thing is a debacle. Trump was manipulated by his betters into engaging a war he doesn't understand at all [0], and while flailing he just reached for the most insane threat he could imagine.

The madman theory ironically actually requires a sane and competent person to perform the bluff, [1] which is not the case here.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

It's a bad strategy.

A high schooler could tell you that.

And yet it was worked for him time and time again.

I don’t like it because we’re needlessly hurting relations, but to say it’s a bad strategy is silly.

We must have a completely different definition of 'it worked'. The only thing that worked here is that he managed to get Epstein off the front pages, but that will only work for so long. Oh, then there is Cuba of course.

Why do you still believe there's any crime at all that could somehow turn around the people who support Trump?

Do you really think, after over a decade of buying into a cult, they will suddenly give up after seeing slightly better proof of things that are already widely known?

It's delusion to think this has to do with Epstein. Israel committed to this war Oct 7th, and the Trump admin jumped in for worse reasons: They thought they were special and could win. They thought they would be seen as strong.

Why do Trump friends own so much news and media if Trump believes he has to make up a war to distract from Epstein?

No amount of preachers raping kids has stopped fundamentalists christians from supporting their institutions that enable such activity. They are some of the same people who support Trump. They don't care if he personally raped a kid. "The ends justify the means". 2A folks support him even though he has directly said he wants to take guns from people without due process and even though he said Pretti should not have brought a gun to a protest, something that Kyle Rittenhouse supporters probably should have a problem with.

They don't care. The ends justify the means. They've never cared about the actual person involved. Everything they say in defense of him is post-hoc rationalization and entirely a front. They do not care.

> Why do you still believe there's any crime at all that could somehow turn around the people who support Trump?

Did I say that? Or did your reply get attached to the wrong comment? Either way, no I don't believe that at all.

Fools hacker news every day. And it worked on the Iranians.

If the madman act had worked there would've been some significant changes before the bombings last year. Or, ok, maybe you gotta show them you're serious. But the madman act would at least then prevent needing to attack for weeks this year. Oh, nevermind. But... third time's the charm, right! He's definitely gonna get what he wants this time?

The people running the country, killing protestors, etc, aren't trying to "win" in the same way Trump is. It's easier to avoid regime change than it is to cause it from air strikes.

Did it? I’m pretty sure a cease fire is something they appreciate, and they haven’t given up anything for it yet.

it really seems like the US is just ceding to iranian terms. the US cant solve the hormuz strait problem militarily, and so it has to come to the table

That is certainly a favorable interpretation of events. I don't buy it. I think there's more evidence that he's actually an erratic, compulsive liar than some master strategist. What great deals has he secured for the US?

People keep saying this, and yet Trump just sounds like a fucking moron to me, if you’ll pardon me quoting his former Secretary of State.

Can you give me some examples of where he’s done this in the last and it actually worked?

> In making threats about a civilization dying he lowered the country's standing in the world.

That threat was really about the death of American civilization as we know it, and he made good on it a long time ago.

The US is in a worse spot than before the war. Iran won.

"I will end your civilization" is not credible. He'd lose a war powers vote and likely be removed if he even started down that path. To say nothing for the logistical impossibility.

He's not doing some Scott Adams master persuader nonsense. He spent a month being ignored by his counterparty so he just kept amping up the rhetoric until he was threating actual genocide. With human shields placed around the infrastructure he promised to attack, the president desperately begged Pakistan to broker a ceasefire with two sets of terms.

> The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

Okay. Tell me, what did the US got? You say they got what they wanted. What is that they wanted and now got?