Just like OpenAI's original moat, I don't think that's particularly durable. I've already seen plenty of people swing back to preferring codex, and it'll probably swap again with the next model drop. Openclaw is potentially better integrated with ChatGPT at this point because of the explicit subscription support.

that's why openai bought openclaw

I mean they hired the guy who created it. It's not exactly like openclaw is a real product.

Also not like it’s a particularly good piece of tech. It was the first to show a new category. But jeebus the design and security are a nightmare. Any of the numerous other claws are better choices for anything serious.

Sure it is.. you can download and use it right now. Helps you understand why people are interested in it, at the very least.

Nothing about AI mindshare is durable. As Anthropic tightens rate limits and/or raises prices, everyone will move to something else.

This week I’ve been hitting CC rate limits, and I switched to Codex with virtually no disruption to my workflow. It’s not good for Anthropic that I was able to do that!

One of the things I’ve been wanting to see is basically an estimate of their minimum revenue to meet investor expectations, too. I’ve heard people talking about using even cheaper local models aggressively to save on tokens and it increasingly makes me wonder if they’re caught in a vice where prices need to go up but if they raise them they’ll just shed usage to the competition, especially since at least Google has a much longer runway.

That is 100% what I think is going to happen.

I wrote about it here: https://tombedor.dev/open-source-models/