Re:Show HN: Git bayesect – Bayesian Git bisection for non-de...
by Myrmornis on Wednesday April 01, 2026 @03:25PM
(#47605366)
This is really cool! Is there an alternative way of thinking about it involving a hidden markov model, looking for a change in value of an unknown latent P(fail)? Or does your approach end up being similar to whatever the appropriate Bayesian approach to the HMM would be?
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Re:Show HN: Git bayesect – Bayesian Git bisection for non-de...
by tazsat0512 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:10AM
(#47610553)
The HMM framing connects to change-point detection.
CUSUM (Cumulative Sum) charts solve a related problem:
detecting when a process parameter has shifted by accumulating deviations from an expected value.
Key difference: CUSUM assumes sequential observation and asks "when did the distribution shift?" Bayesect asks "which commit should I test next?" — active learning vs passive monitoring.
But they could complement each other. If you already have CI pass/fail history, CUSUM on that data gives you a rough change-point estimate for free (no extra test runs), then bayesect refines it with active sampling.