Re:We hold the key to the universe, and we turned it into a ...
by Entropnt on Sunday March 29, 2026 @01:58AM
(#47560749)
You’re right that prediction markets in their current form are closer to a casino than a truth machine — that’s literally the thesis of the article. The question is whether that’s inherent to the mechanism, or a product of broken system design. The article argues it’s the latter, and proposes specific structural fixes. The mechanism itself — weighting estimates by conviction — is well-established. The implementation is what’s failed.
The prediction market is not the "key to the universe," nor is it a "truth machine."
> "The prediction market is the incarnation of collective human knowledge. Or at least it could be."
You know things that have happened or are knowable. You can't know the future. Newton absolutely sucked at making investments, lol.
The prediction market is simply -- and inherently, by its very nature -- a gambling machine that is less "fair" than most other forms of gambling. That is to say: It's better at fleecing rubes and better at rewarding insiders. It's one of the worst things to ever be invented.