We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

Re:We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction... by zovirl on Thursday March 26, 2026 @08:07PM (#47537499)

With enough cash on the line, humans are very resourceful at manipulating outcomes.

Humans already control the weather: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding.

We already have an example of humans sabotaging the measurement of weather: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41684440. Two ranchers sabotaged weather monitoring stations in order to fraudulently collect millions in drought insurance. One of the farmhands involved ended up dead.

And we have an example of prediction markets attempting to manipulate reporting of events: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822.

I have a hard time believing weather prediction markets will be net beneficial. The incentive for sabotage & manipulation up and down the chain seems likely to lead to worse weather predictions overall.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction... by cubefox on Thursday March 26, 2026 @09:41PM (#47538146)

Funny, downthread there is actually a report of someone experiencing manipulation of weather prediction markets:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47535355

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction... by zovirl on Thursday March 26, 2026 @11:19PM (#47538784)

In the same way that crypto has been speed running the history of banking scams, it seems prediction markets are going to speed run the history of gambling and insurance fraud.

[ Parent | on HN ]