News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story. Parent comment

Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by holmesworcester on Monday March 16, 2026 @07:27PM (#47406484)
If it becomes commonplace for existing prediction markets to get undermined by this kind of manipulation, won't that just be an opportunity for people to create better prediction markets that are less vulnerable to manipulation?

And doesn't that just mean more resources and energy is going into solving the problem of determining the truth of past events (and, as a result given that these are prediction markets, the likelihood of future ones?)

And isn't that a good thing?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by gzread on Monday March 16, 2026 @07:29PM (#47406501)
If those prediction markets are patronised by people who want to manipulate it, what drives customers to the new ones?

Making it less vulnerable to manipulation would entail exposing less information too. You probably wouldn't be allowed to know the current odds, which makes gambling the same as reading tea leaves.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by abejfehr on Tuesday March 17, 2026 @12:57AM (#47408812)
Both sports betting and prediction markets are effectively the same as reading tea leaves anyway. You can determine the real odds in roulette or blackjack because those are closed games that have simple probabilities, but any odds given in sports betting or prediction markets are just fancy guesses
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by gzread on Tuesday March 17, 2026 @01:28AM (#47408993)
The odds in betting are the payout ratio. To hinder manipulation, the payout ratio would have to be hidden and then the platform can just always say you won less money than you did.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by ashtonshears on Monday March 16, 2026 @09:51PM (#47407625)
Perhaps, we overestimate the capabilities of capital markets
[ Parent | on HN ]