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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by kqr on Monday March 16, 2026 @04:24PM (#47404383)
If I propose odds based on survival tables for other companies of that age (I think for six years, the annual risk is 9 %), which side of the bet would you like to take?
Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by Terr_ on Monday March 16, 2026 @04:41PM (#47404579)
The, uh, earnestness of your reply makes me suspect you missed the subtext.

We're not interested in expected value or winning the bet. If anything, it's the opposite: The "goal" is to lose the bet due to a situation caused by the pattern of betting, with something beyond any actuarial tables because it's not an independent event.

If I can presume to speak for up-thread commenters, we've agreed the system is inherently exploitable and harmful, and we're either (A) imagining the schadenfreude of using that same evil to harm the people who promote it, or at least (B) imagining them forced to fear the monster they're unleashing on others, so that they take steps to limit it.

Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by jacquesm on Monday March 16, 2026 @05:54PM (#47405468)
Yes, obviously it is about the fear. If everybody takes a 100000:1 bet for a buck then that reserves the next 30 years or so. It's a lottery of sorts, someone will earn quite a bit.