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A comment on Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story. Parent comment

Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by rwmj on Monday March 16, 2026 @10:44AM (#47399719)
In an iterated game, either people would be happy to lose occasionally small amounts like $5 (with the benefit to society that insider knowledge is revealed), or if they didn't like losing even small amounts they'd learn not to bet if they didn't have real insight.
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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by tsimionescu on Monday March 16, 2026 @11:24AM (#47400252)
Well, look at current prediction markets, which are not theoretical and very clearly do allow insiders, with no limitations whatsoever. And people still routinely bet on things that they know insiders can control.
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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by hrimfaxi on Monday March 16, 2026 @11:18AM (#47400173)
Doesn't that assume that people are rational? How many gamblers have lost everything?
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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by watwut on Monday March 16, 2026 @11:21AM (#47400200)
That is not true. That is not how gambling works at all.

That is how theoretical mathematical construction works. Which has nothing to do with how real world people behave in iterated gambling games. And the less you regulate what the gambling company can or can not do, the less the real world version resembles the theoretical construction.

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