the reason people pay attention to him is that he does a good job publicizing both positive and negative results, and accurately categorizing which are bullshit

All I know is he keeps being wrong about quantum supremacy but maybe this is the year he finally gets his wish.

he's been right about it. quantum supremacy was achieved in 2023 (but only for incredibly useless problems)

Yeah I think GP might now prefer his statement(s) to have been about "quantum _advantage_". Which is the modish term after all.

What do you mean? The original 2019 supremacy experiment was eventually simulated, as better classical methods were found, but the followups are still holding strong (for example [4] and [5]). There was recently a series of blog posts by Dominik Hangleiter summarizing the situation: [1][2][3].

[1]: https://quantumfrontiers.com/2026/01/06/has-quantum-advantag...

[2]: https://quantumfrontiers.com/2026/01/25/has-quantum-advantag...

[3]: https://quantumfrontiers.com/2026/02/28/what-is-next-in-quan...

[4]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.04792

[5]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02501

Minor update: Dominik condensed the blog posts into a pre-print: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09901