Absolute worst case (which is massively unlikely) I'm a few hundred dollars down (which I can afford). Realistically any unpleasant constraints would come in gradually and I'd just buy a non-Apple phone at the point I would have upgraded my iPhone and I'm not even financially down.
How am I constrained in any real, meaningful sense?
But more seriously, your solution works only as long as there is "something else". So you're predicating the whole thing on the fact that there's an external entity out there for you to flee to. The problem is that we're moving headlong into a dystopian future where there simply isn't any ecosystem left where you can go. The least worst option at the moment is Android because it allows side loading and is open source so if Google turns evil enough you can be sure that someone else will come in and fork it to compete with them (you can argue that already happened). You can even create your own builds and deploy them to your phone if necessary. Now I'm not advocating any such extreme tin-foil type things in reality, but I do think it's vitally important we preserve at least the ability or freedom for these options to occur, because they keep all the other players honest.
That bunch of applications on the Apple Store that gets bigger and bigger? They add up. You'll clench your teeth and try to ignore the constrains.
With Google you go here http://www.dataliberation.org/ and get everything out. Hell, you have the source for android, you can build your own system http://www.idroidproject.org/ and use your apps as well.
Yes, Google are involved in most Android devices. They don't however mandate any dominance over the device. Using an Android device without Google's apps is not only plausible, but common.
And Google has been engaging in anticompetitive/illegal behaviour (FRAND patents), abusing privacy (Safari DNT) and capitulating over human rights (China). All the while basing their whole business on selling advertising.
For me Google sounds like the worst company to be sharing your children's data with. No ?