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A comment on OpenAI Fires an Employee for Prediction Market Insider Trading. Parent comment

Re:OpenAI Fires an Employee for Prediction Market Insider Tr... by tossaway0 on Saturday February 28, 2026 @03:50PM (#47200075)
I’m probably overlooking something, but if you have insider info, you just bet on that info with certainty. Why would you need to create a different outcome to bet on it?

If I know my company is going to do something on March 16th, I can bet against it happening until that day, and then bet big it will happen that day. I don’t need to influence the company to change what it’s going to do to make money on it.

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Re:OpenAI Fires an Employee for Prediction Market Insider Tr... by agons on Saturday February 28, 2026 @04:33PM (#47200509)
The problem comes when there are lucrative odds for some unlikely scenario, which you can influence into realisation, and that outcome might be counter to the company's goals (i.e. sabotage)
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