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A comment on Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the Department of War. Parent comment

Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by MichaelZuo on Friday February 27, 2026 @05:25PM (#47186595)
You dont believe it increases the probability that Anthropic may be hiding other unsavory things too?

I can see a very charitable person only seeing a small increase, but a literally zero change, and therefore zero relevance, seems absurd.

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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by sowbug on Friday February 27, 2026 @09:40PM (#47189467)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by MichaelZuo on Saturday February 28, 2026 @07:15PM (#47202098)
Are you confusing me with someone else’s comment?

This doesn’t address my question on what you believe.

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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by sowbug on Saturday February 28, 2026 @10:57PM (#47203543)
Read the beetle example in that article. It's exactly on point.

You believe Anthropic is a rare subspecies of beetle (an "unsavory" company) based on a certain pattern on its back (certain NDA-related behavior). I and several others here have noted that lots of companies have that pattern on their backs. Which means that you are basing your conclusion on weak evidence. If you use Bayes Theorem to calculate the actual probability, you'll find that "[trying] to hide the existence of secret non-disparagement agreements" barely moves the needle at all. Does it move the needle? Sure. But much less than you think.

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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by MichaelZuo on Wednesday March 04, 2026 @07:03PM (#47255750)
Even if it only moved the needle a tiny amount… that’s still a non-zero amount?

And therefore a non-zero amount of relevance?

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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by sowbug on Thursday March 05, 2026 @03:36PM (#47266946)
Your original point carries an infinitesimal amount of weight. Yes, you win.
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Re:Statement from Dario Amodei on Our Discussions with the D... by MichaelZuo on Thursday March 05, 2026 @11:54PM (#47271033)
Win what? You haven’t even advanced a coherent argument yet… hence the original reply.
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