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A comment on Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown. Parent comment

Re:Iran students stage first large anti-government protests ... by JumpCrisscross on Sunday February 22, 2026 @01:04PM (#47113161)
> Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops

Germany used to have great Middle Eastern intel, but they either lost it or got better about leaks. American HUMINT in the Middle East is notoriously awful, so I'd err on the side of us being as confused as everyone else.

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Re:Iran students stage first large anti-government protests ... by breppp on Sunday February 22, 2026 @03:14PM (#47114212)
I think intelligence like historiography is extremely bad at detecting processes as they are happening, as it cannot understand behaviors of humans that are not part of large bureaucracies it usually researches. Therefore, intelligence in general usually fails in anticipating revolutions
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