How detailed are the business requirements however? "Increase NPV" is certainly a business requirement, albeit a very abstract one. "Add a checkbox to this form" is another, far more concrete business requirement.

Good AI asks clarification questions. Codex plan mode is already getting there-ish.

I suppose it is really only possible to know how close something is until it arrives. When I type in "Maximize NPV" into Codex / Claude Code, I feel like it is incredibly far away from full autonomous capability. I guess we will see.

What do you get when you type in “Maximize NPV” to a human?

"Maximize NPV" is exactly what shareholders prompt boards of directors with. Not all humans can do it, but some can. Perhaps your argument is that AGI isn't required to solve software. This would imply that human level intelligence isn't actually required today to build software.