Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by c-fe on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @05:30AM (#46778072)

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by fauigerzigerk on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @07:04AM (#46778896)

Prediction markets?

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by c-fe on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @10:50AM (#46781585)

Im not sure I like that market in particular, but probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by fauigerzigerk on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @11:48AM (#46782539)

I've never used polymarket, I just wanted to mention prediction markets as an option in general.

The particular bet I linked to is probably a bad idea though, because there is a causal link between OpenAI doing well and deciding to go public. So this is not the way to bet on it crashing and burning.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by Yizahi on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @06:27AM (#46778576)

Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by fauigerzigerk on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @07:03AM (#46778880)

You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by piva00 on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @08:30AM (#46779687)

But that isn't the analogy, is it?

Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by fauigerzigerk on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @09:04AM (#46780047)

Betting usually has a cost.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by piva00 on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @09:27AM (#46780374)

A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by fauigerzigerk on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @10:05AM (#46780933)

Not necessarily. Spread betting doesn't work like that for instance. And shorting a stock can be structured in a way that caps your losses as well. It's just a matter of cost vs potential gains.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by trickster_ on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @05:36AM (#46778145)

That's an excellent question. My fear is that it's going to be a little bit like putting a towel on a pool-bed on the Titanic...

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by c-fe on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @05:41AM (#46778202)

Exactly. I would prefer to remain invested as I dont want to time the market. But I would prefer if I could meaningfully reduce exposure to OpenAI and the consequences of their possible downfall.

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Re:Is OpenAI Dead Yet? by helsinkiandrew on Tuesday January 27, 2026 @05:48AM (#46778270)

Not really that gives you much exposure:

If OpenAI is worth $5B, 4% of MSFT market Cap is Open AI.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) holding is 7.2% of its total but also has xAI, Anthropic and lots of other AI

https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold

OpenAI going bust might be a shock to shareprices of publicly traded companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Softbank and the like

EDIT: obviously if OpenAI is worth $500B, not 5

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