Re:Kiel Institute Analysis: US Americans pay 96% of tariff b...
by skippyboxedhero on Monday January 19, 2026 @12:44PM
(#46682063)
Right, but what people miss is that some people (usually not academic economists) are able to predict the economy with good levels of accuracy. It is not hard, there is a ton of data, the problem is that you have to drop your own personal interest in politics...for 99.99% of people feeling politically validated is more important than being right on the economy.
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Re:Kiel Institute Analysis: US Americans pay 96% of tariff b...
by threethirtytwo on Monday January 19, 2026 @12:56PM
(#46682257)
Isn't there reams of data on weather patterns too? I thought that like the weather, economic systems are fundamentally chaotic and thus demonstrably unpredictable. There's a whole field of math where we can create these mathematical models that simulate chaos and are fundamentally unpredictable. I was under the impression that Economics falls under the purview of this mathematical theory in terms of unpredictability.
If I may ask, who are the people that do these predictions? What is there methodology and how do you know it's not luck?