I agree, however there you don’t compare technical knowledge alone, you also compare managerial skills.
With LLMs its admittedly a bit closer to doing it yourself because the feedback loop is much tighter
Yeah... and besides managerial skills, also product (using the word loosely) sense, user empathy, clarity of vision, communication skills. They've always been multipliers for programmers, even more so in this moment.
I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure it is true. Take simonw and tymscar, put them each in charge of a team of 19 engineers (of identical capabilities). Is the result "nowhere near the same jump" as simonw vs. tymscar alone? I think it's potentially a much bigger jump, if there are differences in who has better ideas and not just who can code the fastest.