Quite a large bubble. The burden of proof for demonstrating the enormous economic value LLMs are providing really is yours. Sure, there are anecdotal benefits to using LLMs, but we haven't seen any evidence that in aggregate businesses across America are benefitting. Other than AI companies, the stock market isn't even doing well. You would think that with massive expected efficiency gains companies would be doing better across the board. Are businesses that use AI generating significantly higher profits? I haven't seen any evidence of it yet (and I'm really looking for it, and would love to see it!). It's pure speculation so far.

Careful not to assume I’m more bullish than I am. I said there’s value, I didn’t say there’s enormous value equal to the investment bubble. I see this as similar to the dot com boom. Websites were and are valuable things, even if people got too excited in 2002 about it.

The scale and stakes of the investment now are much, much higher now than in dot com. Likewise, don't assume I'm more bearish than I am. But enormous investment requires more benefit than has been realized.

You think I don’t know that?