More seriously I wonder why random signals that appear to be noise but if noticed are actually quite pertinent to predicting trends have such a great effect on people.
Example follows:
Kennedy later claimed he knew the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a crash. It is said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy
For example if my mom came to me with an investment decision my response would be a big fat no - might even go out and look at it for a short. If my hairdresser recommended a stock to me - I'd feel immediately like selling. These are by definition low signal events that should be classified as pure noise - but they seem to be a rather useful thought model.
More seriously I wonder why random signals that appear to be noise but if noticed are actually quite pertinent to predicting trends have such a great effect on people.
Example follows:
Kennedy later claimed he knew the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a crash. It is said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.
For example if my mom came to me with an investment decision my response would be a big fat no - might even go out and look at it for a short. If my hairdresser recommended a stock to me - I'd feel immediately like selling. These are by definition low signal events that should be classified as pure noise - but they seem to be a rather useful thought model.
So party like it's 1997 - get in and get out.