>In my neighborhood (a Criminal Justice Reform Zone), the catch and release of repeat criminals caused a surge in break ins.

But suddenly adding cameras that resulted in catching more people fixed the issue? Surely if the catch and release was the issue, that wouldn't make a difference.

That doesn't validate the causal claim quoted above.

Ignore your eyes, the stats say crime is down!

Of course, you should instead believe your own anecdotal evidence that marks a tally every time you hear about a crime, which if you watch local news is always, but doesn't mark a tally every time there isn't a crime.

Fun fact that's totally not related, did you know that people who listen to true crime podcasts are more likely to believe a crime could happen to their families and are also more likely to install higher levels of security on their house?

The fact that humans are bad at tracking stats does not necessarily mean that statistics are a more accurate "map" of reality than human intuition.

(edited for clarity)